Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Depression 2.0?

The Great Depression, will be a prominent chapter in US and world history text books for years to come. It affected nearly all countries and would retard global economic growth for many years. The question is, can there be another economic collapse of such magnitude in the future? With the recent global recession, questions of a possible depression in the future have been circulating, is it really possible for history to repeat itself? To possibly find an answer to this question we need to look at two key elements, economic reform passed after the great depression and economic stability during the rest of the 20th century and our current political climate, not economic climate. Economic stability has increased since the great depression. Reforms made in response to the Great Depression and in the decades after helped solidify America's economic stability. After the Depression, GDP began a steady upward trend (Wikipedia). When it did waver, it was during short recessions and bubble bursts, such as the Dot Com bubble. The American economy quickly rebounded from these dips and the markets continued on their upward trend. Economic reform and stability during the 20th century seem to the stage for a positive American economy in the future. The positives that these aspects bring to the equation are strongly negated by the current political climate of the US. The current recession is not an odd ball in history. Dips in a free market are to be expected and are always reciprocated by times of success. What is unsettling is nearly all levels of American government are permeated by the same infection. The inability to function. Congress has yet to pass a budget since 1997 (prospect.org). The US's credit rating was downgraded in 2012 not because our national debt was to outpace our national GDP. It was because credit rating agencies did not believe that the US government provided a stable environment to invest in. With every new season, there is another round of political squabble trying to fix everything at the last minute. Raise the debt ceiling, prevent government shutdown, the sequester,  the government is taking the American people for one hell of a roller coaster. Its like a business that has an ineffective board that can't agree on anything. Who wants to invest in a company that can't internally agree? Let alone pay its debts in a timely manor. This is the aspect that troubles me the most. The political climate we live in today is extremely volatile and could result in a myriad of economic consequences. Extrapolating from the rest of the 20th century, an economic collapse of equal magnitude to the Great Depression is unlikely. Extrapolating from the last five years? It seems unstettlingly possible that an economic collapse on par with that of the 30's could occur. The question still remains, which of these factors is weighted more, the 20th century, or the past five years? Only the future will know.